The 1-3% rule
Most professional bettors stake between 1% and 3% of their bankroll per bet. Some use fixed stakes (e.g. always €50), others use proportional stakes (e.g. always 2% of current bankroll).
Why small stakes matter
Betting is high-variance. Even with a genuine 5% edge, you'll have extended losing streaks. A 20-bet losing streak is entirely normal over the course of a year. If your stake is 10% of bankroll, you're likely to go broke before your edge realises.
Kelly Criterion
The Kelly formula gives the theoretically optimal stake size for a given edge. For most bettors, half-Kelly (staking half the formula's suggestion) is recommended because Kelly is optimal only if your probability estimates are perfectly accurate, which they never are.
Formula: Stake % = (decimal odds × win probability − 1) / (decimal odds − 1)
Example: Odds 2.00, your estimated win probability 55%. Kelly suggests ((2 × 0.55) − 1) / (2 − 1) = 0.10, or 10% of bankroll. Half-Kelly suggests 5%.
Record everything
Spreadsheet or app. Track:
- Date and event
- Bet and odds
- Stake and unit size (% of bankroll)
- Outcome and profit/loss
- Running bankroll
Without records, you'll misremember. Every bettor thinks they're winning more than they are.
Ready to put this into practice?
Start with a well-reviewed operator. Bet responsibly, never stake more than you can afford to lose.
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